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A Curveball On The Hiring Debate

The New York Fed (Empire) Index came in either dismal or disastrous depending on which sector you looked at. Away from the general data, we found the section on hiring plans to be quite eye-opening. Look at this: In a series of supplementary questions, respondents were queried about difficulties in finding workers proficient in certain […]

Historical Analog Update

Despite the markets (in our opinion) being oversold enough to launch a rally soon, we really have to break from past cycles- because the next 12 months or so do not look too promising based on the historical data: Market Cycles- We lined up the panic bottoms from the last three secular bear market cycles- these being […]

Have We Seen This Movie Before?

Earlier this year The Financial Review presented a paper by Professors Terry Zivney and Richard Marcus entitled “The Day The United States Defaulted on Treasury Bills”.  It happened under Jimmy Carter. Here’s how my old friend, Don Marron, summed up the key points of the paper back in May: Investors in T-bills maturing April 26, 1979 were […]

Debt Ceiling: A Picture is Worth a Trillion Words

Though the U.S. defaulted only once in modern history (1979 due to a technical error) and twice in ‘ancient’ history (1933 on its gold commitments to holders and 1790 as a newly formed nation), the amount of times the debt ceiling was actually raised is staggering, in our opinion. In fact so much so, it […]